novelones Chapter 1048 Risk Debate
Chapter 1048 Risk Debate
Buffett finally decided to give up the discussion of 'needs' and let himself survive.
He changed the subject: "Then have you ever thought about risks? In other words, where do you place risk control? For example, Econ Solar, why can't I see your backup plan after failure?"
Xia Chuan asked in confusion: "There are still risks in photovoltaics? Isn't this a huge demand?"
Buffett is a little confused. Why does he seem to be a person from two worlds? How does it feel like shouting from across the Milky Way?
"I mean, what should you do if you can't develop it? If all the planned R&D funds are invested but not developed, wouldn't it all be in vain?
I asked about monocrystalline silicon. It seems that it is a hundred times more difficult than what you said to increase the conversion rate to [-]%. It will not be possible in [-] years, let alone graphene.
No one dares to do it except you. Have you never thought about what to do if you fail? "
Xia Chuan sighed:
"Old man, we are from two different worlds. No wonder you never invest in high-tech stocks.
I am an entrepreneur. I only ask what is the greatest need of mankind, and I will develop it.
The biggest demand is the biggest outlet.
In other words, you have not considered political governance, policy changes, and the full support of every country.
This force is extremely huge and will push the photovoltaic industry to excessive prosperity.
As for failure in research and development, where does failure come from if you don’t give up?
Are there things that can never be studied?
It’s just the input-output ratio.
To take another step back, what happened in thirty years? This is not how risk control works.
I just need to ensure that I make money from other places, such as the Internet. This is easy for me, do you believe it?
Then throw money into photovoltaics to ensure that research and development continues forever.
This is called risk control.
And during this process, I have already become the world's leading photovoltaic company, how could I not make money?
If this node is not successful, are other nodes not successful? I am not focusing on one node.
I don’t need to be smart, I just need to be better than all companies.
Not to mention the issue of profit model.
There is even greater certainty in this regard. "
Buffett was thinking blankly, and when he heard the profit model, he immediately put aside the previous entanglement:
"I was just about to ask you, will your poverty alleviation model be at least ten years away from generating profits?"
Xia Chuan chuckled and said: "The old man's eyes are so bright that he is indeed deceiving people, but I am not telling lies.
I have many profit models. Poverty alleviation is more imaginative, but it is not the most profitable.
Within ten years, photovoltaic products will have to be exported to Europe to make profits, and it is not impossible for their photovoltaic companies to even go bankrupt. "
Buffett gasped.
He had seen a lot of big talk, but when Xia Chuan said it, it always made people feel as sharp as a knife.
"Do you think investing in people is more risky, or investing in companies is more risky?" Buffett asked.
Xia Chuan smiled. He understood the meaning of this sentence. Buffett has always invested in enterprises.
Only venture capital invests in people, and there is no way to look at a company. When you start a business, it is full of holes. You can only judge whether the company can succeed based on the entrepreneur and the team.
Buffett means that if you want to invest in Xia Chuan's company, you must change your deep-rooted beliefs.
According to corporate standards, Yikon is high risk and does not meet the standards.
But if you want to invest in someone, there is no one more suitable than Xia Chuan.
He has never failed.
Although he couldn't understand it, Buffett always felt that he was one dimension lower. Xia Chuan seemed to be standing in a four-dimensional space. He could see everything in the past and future. Research and development was an unmeasured risk to others, but to him he could pinpoint the day when it would succeed.
It's just a matter of time scale.
Xia Chuan said calmly and calmly:
"I can responsibly say that now that we have entered the era of science and technology, your investment philosophy is out of date. You must invest in high technology, otherwise, although your achievements can surpass ordinary people, they will appear lackluster, at least not great. investors."
Buffett's G-spot was really poked, and he trembled slightly.
He asked unconvinced: "Do you think my investment in Coca-Cola is outdated?"
"No, that's okay. I'm just saying that you shouldn't reject high technology.
In other words, Coca-Cola's return rate will be much lower than the return rate of high-tech stocks.
To put it more intuitively, Coca-Cola's current price is US$40. Three years later, it will rise to US$97 by 140.
But based on this rate of return, it doesn’t even rank among the top ten. The top ten are all high-tech and the Internet. "
Buffett gasped again.
What shocked him was that Xia Chuan's predictions were always so accurate. How did he do it?
He asked carefully: "Is this Coca-Cola stock price a conclusion drawn from demand?"
Xia Chuan said calmly: "What if? Do you think the world economy is going backwards every year?"
Hahaha, Buffett laughed. He found that he had asked a stupid question. Others may question whether Coca-Cola is really a surge in demand.
As the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats. As the living standards of people around the world increase, Coca-Cola's sales will increase.
Therefore, if you predict the world economic growth rate, you will know the prospects of Coca-Cola.
Buffett lamented: "Although I invest in a lot of stocks, the ones that really make money are the few selected stocks with heavy holdings. The rest are to maintain a sense of the overall market and not to miss any stocks that should be paid attention to. But if you use Investing in high technology this way is very risky.”
Xia Chuan nodded: "Me too, I strike hard and never diversify my investments."
Buffett smiled, that's not an investment, is it a holding?
"How do you identify whether a technology company will become big or whether it will go bankrupt one day?"
"High technology, it all depends on the person. Success or failure depends on who does it. It was doomed from the beginning." Xia Chuan made no secret, he really thought so.
When Buffett's eyes light up, it's no longer contradictory, he's investing in others!
"What qualities should the best leader of a technology company possess?"
"You may not believe me when I tell you, it's best not to have a college diploma."
Buffett actually nodded: "I think so too. It seems that the higher the degree of education, the more like a gentleman, but something is missing. Just like you said, you use the microphone to hit the audience. If you have to, you should leave it, and if you need to retreat, you should retreat. But most people can't do that. arrive."
Hahaha, Xia Chuan laughed: "I was just joking, I wouldn't really do it."
Buffett even smiled like a chrysanthemum: "The problem is, others can't even make this joke."
He was very grateful to Xia Chuan in his heart. It was just a condition that defined a small range for him, which was Microsoft, Oracle, Apple, and Yikon.
Buffett was a little dumbfounded. This is equivalent to investing according to Xia Chuan's investment.